Would you bet…
Lincoln: Rio Noguchi vs Charles Broom Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 89% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $432,767 volume
- Resolves
- 20 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
Rio Noguchi is strongly favored at 89% to advance past Charles Broom in this Lincoln matchup. The market has in recent trading, with $433k in total volume—a modest but real level of liquidity for a futures tennis match. The price reflects a clear consensus, though it stops well short of certainty.
What moves this further depends on real-world intel: recent form, head-to-head record, surface preference, and injury status. At 89%, the market is saying Noguchi is favored but beatable. Any news that shifts either player’s fitness, ranking trajectory, or match conditions could compress or widen the gap.
This resolves on 20 July 2026 via Polymarket. Note the cancellation clause: if the match doesn’t happen on schedule or runs past seven days without a winner, the market resolves to NO. That tail risk is baked into the current 11% ask. For traders, the real question is whether 89% reflects genuine edge or merely consensus—always worth checking the tape.
FAQ
What does a 89% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 89% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 89% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Rio Noguchi and Charles Broom in the Lincoln, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rio Noguchi' if Rio Noguchi advances against Charles Broom. This market will resolve to 'Charles Broom' if Charles Broom a
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.