Would you bet…
Bogota: Nicolas Mejia vs Juan Pablo Varillas Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 77% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $227,063 volume
- Resolves
- 18 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
Nicolas Mejia is strongly favored to advance, priced at 77% on Polymarket with $227k in volume. in recent trading The match, scheduled for 18 July 2026 on Polymarket, pits two Colombian players in what amounts to a home-court scenario for both—though Mejia carries the market’s conviction.
The 77% price reflects a substantial gap. To move it meaningfully lower, bettors would need fresh data: injury news, recent head-to-head results, or late ATP ranking shifts. Varillas at 23% remains a live alternative, but the spread suggests the market has already priced in available public information.
Watch for line movement in the final week before play. Cancellation or a delay beyond seven days triggers a no-resolution outcome, which the criteria explicitly cover. Until then, 77% is the market’s read on who advances—not a certainty, but a credible lean.
FAQ
What does a 77% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 77% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 77% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Mejia and Juan Pablo Varillas in the Bogota, originally scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Mejia' if Nicolas Mejia advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varill
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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