Would you bet…
Quito: Alan Magadan vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 39% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $105,111 volume
- Resolves
- 10 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 6 days ago
Magadan is priced as an underdog at 39%, with the field favoring Pucinelli de Almeida at 61%. The market has in recent trading, suggesting modest conviction either way. At $105k in total volume, liquidity is moderate enough to move on fresh information about either player’s form or injury status heading into the July 3 match in Quito.
The gap between the two players—reflected in the roughly 22-point spread—likely reflects head-to-head record, ranking differential, or surface preference on clay. To shift the price materially, you’d need news: a significant injury, a recent tournament result that reshapes expectations, or updated odds from professional bookmakers. Surface conditions in Quito and weather forecasts closer to match day could also influence the odds.
The market settles on 10 July 2026 via Polymarket. Until then, 39% represents the current market read on Magadan’s probability—a price, not a prediction, and one that can move as readily as new data arrives.
FAQ
What does a 39% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 39% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 39% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Alan Magadan and Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida in the Quito, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alan Magadan' if Alan Magadan advances against Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida. This market will resolve to 'Mat
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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