Would you bet…
Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobolli Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 11% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,488,696 volume
- Resolves
- 11 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 5 days ago
Khachanov is a long shot here at 11%, with $1.49M in volume. in recent trading has held, suggesting modest conviction either way.
The market is pricing Khachanov as the likelier winner, which tracks with ranking and recent form—he’s been a consistent top-20 player, while Cobolli, though talented, remains less proven at tour level. But 89% for Cobolli is not negligible. Grass can compress the gap between players; angles matter more than baseline dominance, and upsets happen at Wimbledon. To move this market materially, you’d need either news of injury, withdrawal, or a notable shift in pre-match form—say, one player reaching the quarterfinals while the other exits early.
The resolution hinges on whether the match is played and completes within 7 days of the scheduled July 4 date. Right now, 11% reflects Khachanov as the statistical edge, but the price is still a live read on an event three months out. Check back closer to the draw.
FAQ
What does a 11% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 11% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 11% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Flavio Cobolli in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Flavio Cobolli. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli'
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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