Would you bet…
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 9% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $970,828 volume
- Resolves
- 10 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 6 days ago
Jodar is a long shot at 9%, giving Mochizuki 91% to pull the upset. The market has in recent trading, suggesting traders see this as a relatively settled affair. With $971k in total volume, liquidity is modest—typical for a qualifying-round matchup at a Grand Slam.
The pricing reflects a substantial gap in perceived strength. That kind of separation usually tracks real differences in ranking, recent form, or head-to-head record. To move the needle meaningfully, you’d need either late injury news on Jodar, a significant shift in the betting consensus elsewhere, or fresh information about Mochizuki’s current fitness. Until then, the market is pricing this as a routine advance for the higher seed.
Remember that Wimbledon grass can be volatile—a few unforced errors or a hot serving day changes everything. The current price 9% is a live read of where the market sits now, not a guarantee. Watch for 10 July 2026 settlement and verify the match on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 9% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 9% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 9% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Shintaro Mochizuki in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Shintaro Mochizuki. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Mochizu
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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