Would you bet…
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 93% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,246,680 volume
- Resolves
- 8 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
93% on Jodar here—a strongly favored market that’s trading on modest volume of $1.25M. The pricing reflects confidence in the higher seed, though in recent trading means there’s little recent signal about whether that conviction is hardening or softening.
Jodar enters as the clear favorite, but the gap between 93% and 7% leaves room for what the market sees as a plausible path for Carreno Busta. Wimbledon’s grass surface and best-of-five format create conditions where ranking and seeding matter, but upsets aren’t rare—especially if the favorite faces an awkward matchup or comes in undercooked. The question traders will be watching: form leading into the tournament, injury news, and any serving or movement concerns that might narrow that 93%-7% spread.
The thin volume suggests limited liquidity, so position sizing will matter if you’re testing this price. Jodar remains the lean, but Carreno Busta’s odds are live enough to reward conviction if circumstances shift. Watch the week before play for adjustments.
FAQ
What does a 93% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 93% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 93% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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