Would you bet…
Nottingham 3: William Jansen vs Felix Gill Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 37% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $81,785 volume
- Resolves
- 14 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
The market is pricing Jansen as an underdog, offering 37% for an upset win. That’s a modest vote of confidence in Gill, who sits at 63%—not overwhelming, but a clear lean. in recent trading has held, suggesting modest conviction either way.
With $82k in volume, there’s enough liquidity to move on real information: updated rankings, recent head-to-head records, or injury news either player might carry into Nottingham 3. The market will reprice sharply if either player’s form data shifts materially or if fresh odds from sportsbooks suggest a different matchup weight.
The resolution criteria are clean: Jansen advances and it settles YES; Gill advances and it settles NO. The only ambiguity is cancellation or delay beyond seven days, which would void the contract. At 37%, you’re betting Jansen has the edge in a live match. At 63%, you’re betting he doesn’t. This price is a live read, not a verdict.
FAQ
What does a 37% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 37% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 37% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between William Jansen and Felix Gill in the Nottingham 3, originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'William Jansen' if William Jansen advances against Felix Gill. This market will resolve to 'Felix Gill' if Felix Gill
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.