Would you bet…
Wimbledon ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jaume Munar Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $316,589 volume
- Resolves
- 8 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
Jacob Fearnley sits at 4%, making him all but ruled out in a Wimbledon first-round matchup against Jaume Munar. The market has seen in recent trading and has held, with $317k in total volume. The pricing reflects Munar as the favored player—a reasonable read given the Spanish lefty’s ranking and experience, though Fearnley, a Scottish qualifier, carries the kind of home-court equity that can matter on grass.
What would shift this? A concrete injury report or withdrawal would force immediate resolution toward 96%. News of Fearnley’s form heading into the tournament—tournament wins, grass-court results, or fitness concerns—could tighten or widen the gap. Same for Munar: any late-arriving injury doubt would push 4% upward. The match itself settles the question entirely on 8 July 2026, per Polymarket.
For now the market is pricing this as a Munar favor, but not a heavy one. Grass can scramble conventional seeding. The current odds reflect genuine uncertainty in a first-round match where one player has the ranking edge and the other has something potentially more valuable: the crowd.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Jaume Munar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Jaume Munar. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if Jaume Mu
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.