Would you bet…
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 96% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $868,028 volume
- Resolves
- 11 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 5 days ago
Berrettini is 4%, pricing Dimitrov as all but certain in this first-round matchup. The market has in recent trading, suggesting modest conviction either way. With $868k in total volume, liquidity is thin enough that fresh money or late injury news could shift the tape meaningfully.
The pricing reflects Berrettini’s grass credentials—he’s a Wimbledon semifinalist with a serve built for the surface. Dimitrov, meanwhile, has historically struggled on grass relative to hard courts. The 96% slot accounts for Dimitrov’s improved consistency and ranking position, but doesn’t overweight it. For Dimitrov money to flow in, you’d need either injury concern on Berrettini’s side or a sharp uptick in pre-match form data favoring the Bulgarian. Conversely, a Berrettini drift would require new evidence of physical trouble or a significant confidence shift in the betting public.
At 4%, this reflects a reasonable baseline: the higher-seeded server with the surface fit. The market has held recently in recent trading, which suggests bettors have largely priced what they know. This resolves 11 July 2026 via Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 96% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 96% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 96% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Grigor Dimitrov and Matteo Berrettini in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Grigor Dimitrov' if Grigor Dimitrov advances against Matteo Berrettini. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Be
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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