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Swedish Open: Max Dahlin vs Sebastian Baez Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 7% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $442,311 volume
- Resolves
- 20 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
Max Dahlin is a long shot at 7% to advance past Sebastian Baez in the first round of the Swedish Open. The market has held in recent trading, with $442k in total volume, suggesting thin conviction either way.
The pricing reflects a significant gap in seeding or ranking between the two players—likely favoring Baez—but with enough uncertainty to keep Dahlin alive. In tennis matchups involving a heavy underdog, the main movers are typically recent form, head-to-head records, and court conditions. Surface fit matters here: the Swedish Open is played on clay, which rewards certain styles of play and movement patterns. Any news on either player’s recent tournaments, injury status, or clay-court record would likely shift this price.
At 7%, you’re pricing in a genuine but narrow path for Dahlin. The market settles 20 July 2026 and sources from Polymarket. Given thin volume and early scheduling, expect wider swings if either player’s pre-match form becomes clearer.
FAQ
What does a 7% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 7% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 7% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Max Dahlin and Sebastian Baez in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Max Dahlin' if Max Dahlin advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian B
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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