Would you bet…
Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Arthur Gea Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 6% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $68,616 volume
- Resolves
- 25 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
Murphy Cassone is a long shot to advance past Arthur Gea in this Granby matchup, priced at 6% on Polymarket. That pricing reflects a wide gap in perceived quality or confidence—the market is laying heavy odds on Gea. in recent trading suggests has held recently, though data on directional pressure over the past week is limited.
With $69k in total volume, this is a thin market, which means prices can shift on modest action. The structure here is straightforward: Cassone wins outright, Gea wins outright, or the market resolves to 5 if the July 18, 2026 match at 10:00 AM ET doesn’t finish within seven days or is scrapped entirely. That tail risk is real enough to matter in a thin book.
What would move this? Any concrete information on form, head-to-head record, or recent tournament results for either player would register immediately. For now, the 94% side is heavily favored—a live read of the market’s current priors, not a forecast.
FAQ
What does a 6% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 6% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 6% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Murphy Cassone and Arthur Gea in the Granby, originally scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Murphy Cassone' if Murphy Cassone advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advan
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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