Would you bet…
Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $262,885 volume
- Resolves
- 24 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
The market prices Burruchaga as all but ruled out, with 5% conviction behind his advance. 95% of traders are backing Merida Aguilar. $263k in total volume suggests modest interest in what shapes up as a lower-profile matchup on the Croatia Open draw.
in recent trading has held the position, leaving the current split largely static. Without recent momentum, the price is pricing in form, ranking, and head-to-head record—the usual inputs for futures on unseeded or lower-ranked players. To move this market materially, you’d need shifts in either player’s injury status, unexpected roster news from the tournament, or late-stage betting flow from sharp tennis bettors with access to serve data and surface preference models.
The market settles on 24 July 2026 via Polymarket. At 5%, Burruchaga is trading where the smart money sees value—but tennis upsets happen at clay courts, and the gap between these two players may be narrower than the price suggests.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Andres Burruchaga and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Roman Andres Burruchaga' if Roman Andres Burruchaga advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.