Would you bet…
Swedish Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 43% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $781,048 volume
- Resolves
- 22 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
Basilashvili is priced as an underdog here, with 43% backing him to advance. The market has in recent trading, and total interest sits at $781k. That valuation reflects genuine uncertainty—neither player dominates the matchup on paper, and both are capable of mid-level ATP runs on a fast court.
The gap between the two prices suggests traders see marginal edge to Tirante, likely rooted in seeding, recent form, or head-to-head record. But 43% isn’t cramped; there’s material probability baked in that Basilashvili wins the match outright. Movement here would track serve efficiency on the day, early-match momentum, and whether either player brings injury concerns to the court.
This resolves on 22 July 2026 via Polymarket. The setup is clean—no tie, no cancellation clause ambiguity—so the question is purely tennis. At current prices, you’re pricing Basilashvili as a live underdog with room to move either direction based on how the match unfolds.
FAQ
What does a 43% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 43% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 43% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. This market w
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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