Would you bet…
Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 84% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $520,320 volume
- Resolves
- 25 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
84% prices Merida Aguilar as strongly favored favorite. The market has in recent trading, with $520k in total volume. At this level, traders are assigning Merida Aguilar a commanding edge over Dzumhur in their Croatia Open matchup scheduled for 25 July 2026.
The gap between 84% and 16% is wide enough to suggest real confidence in the favorite rather than mere speculation. To shift this pricing meaningfully upward, you’d need news of injury to Merida Aguilar or a sudden change in conditions favoring Dzumhur’s game. A move downward would require evidence of form collapse or fitness concerns on Merida Aguilar’s side.
One wrinkle: the match doesn’t resolve if it’s postponed more than a week from the July 18 scheduled date, so calendar risk exists but shouldn’t move the needle unless delays materialize. For now, 84% at its current level reflects the straightforward assessment that Merida Aguilar should win. This is a live market read, not a prediction.
FAQ
What does a 84% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 84% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 84% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Damir Dzumhur in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Damir Dzumhur. This market will resolve to
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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