Would you bet…
Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 61% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,060,241 volume
- Resolves
- 13 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
The market prices Aboian as the favorite, with 61% backing him to advance. $1.06M in total volume suggests modest attention to this early-round matchup. in recent trading has held, indicating little recent conviction either way.
At 61%, the market is saying Alvarez is the heavy favorite—a read that typically reflects ranking gaps, recent form, or head-to-head history. To move this market meaningfully upward, Aboian would need credible news: a significant ranking improvement, public information about Alvarez’s physical condition, or a change in court assignment that favors his style. Conversely, any report of Alvarez entering the match healthy and in form would likely cement or extend 39%.
These matches often turn on execution and momentum. The price reflects what’s known now, not what will happen on July 6. Watch for lineup confirmations and any late injury disclosures closer to the scheduled date.
FAQ
What does a 61% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 61% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 61% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Luis Carlos Alvarez in the Bogota, originally scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Luis Carlos Alvarez. This market will resolve to 'Luis Carlos Al
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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