Would you bet…
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 11% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $2,706,758 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 2 weeks ago
The market prices Zelenskyy’s exit from office before end-2026 at 11%, a a long shot — and it has held steady barely a point either way. At $2.71M traded, the contract reflects a low but non-trivial read on regime change or early succession in wartime Ukraine.
What would move this higher: a major military collapse, negotiated settlement that triggers constitutional crisis, or serious health event. What keeps it low: Zelenskyy’s current political durability, wartime rally-around-the-flag dynamics, and the bar being set at any cessation, not just death or deposition. The resolution criteria include announcement alone, which means even a pre-announced but delayed transition would settle Yes immediately.
89% reflects the baseline—that absent catastrophic scenario, an incumbent at war typically holds office through the stated window. The price is a market read of conditional risk, not a forecast. Polymarket will determine the call.
FAQ
What does a 11% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 11% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 11% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end d
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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