Would you bet…
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $34,649,026 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 minute ago
Trump has floated the idea of acquiring Greenland, but the market prices it all but ruled out. At 4%, traders are assigning roughly a 1-in-20 shot that the U.S. will formally absorb Greenland’s sovereignty by year-end 2026. The position barely a point either way, suggesting the idea hasn’t gained traction among investors despite recent political chatter.
The math here is stark: Denmark has made clear Greenland is not for sale, and Greenland’s government has rejected acquisition overtures. No credible legislative or diplomatic pathway exists. A forced takeover would violate international law and Denmark’s sovereignty—moves that would isolate the U.S. from NATO allies. The resolution criteria demand an official U.S. announcement of transfer by December 31, 2026, a threshold that remains distant and improbable.
What could move this higher? A genuine geopolitical breakdown involving Denmark, a radical shift in U.S. policy toward territorial expansion, or some unforeseen crisis. None of these look imminent. At 4%, the market has held steady skeptical—the right call, but worth watching if rhetoric escalates into concrete diplomatic moves.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its curr
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This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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