Would you bet…
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 55% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $5,544,353 volume
- Resolves
- 30 Sep 2026
- Updated
- 22 seconds ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? at 55% — the favored outcome. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30,…
The market is scheduled to settle on 30 Sep 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 55% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 55% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 55% likely.
How does this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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