Would you bet…
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 7% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $113,216 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 4 days ago
Trump has shown no public interest in endorsing Machado for Venezuela’s presidency, and the market reflects that skepticism: 7% sits at a long shot, with 93% capturing nearly all conviction. The token has slipped down 5 points, suggesting traders have grown even more confident in a no-resolution outcome. $113k in total volume indicates modest liquidity for what amounts to a binary political bet with a long tail.
For yes to gain ground, Trump would need to break silence on Venezuelan succession in a way that singles out Machado by name or unmistakable reference before year-end 2026. That’s plausible if U.S.-Venezuela relations deteriorate sharply or if Machado becomes the opposition consensus figure and Trump adopts her as a proxy talking point. But his track record suggests he is more likely to speak in generalities—condemning Maduro, praising “democracy”—than to endorse a specific successor, especially one with her contested domestic standing.
The resolution criteria are tightly drawn: even a preference for another candidate tanks this to zero. That structural risk, combined with Trump’s transactional approach to foreign alignments, explains why 7% remains a long shot. The price is a live read on how unlikely traders find an explicit endorsement, not a forecast of Venezuela’s actual political future.
FAQ
What does a 7% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 7% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 7% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual,
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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