Would you bet…
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $138,437 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 2 weeks ago
The market prices a U.S. military invasion of Colombia at 5%, a all but ruled out posture. The position has held steady barely a point either way, though it remains far below any level suggesting material risk. $138k in trading reflects limited conviction on either side.
The price makes sense against the baseline: the U.S. and Colombia maintain a formal alliance, collaborate on drug interdiction and counterinsurgency, and have no active territorial disputes. A unilateral American invasion would shatter a decades-old partnership, trigger hemisphere-wide diplomatic backlash, and serve no strategic interest. The only plausible movers would be a dramatic cascade—a Colombian state collapse, a humanitarian catastrophe that draws forcible intervention, or a geopolitical rupture so severe that it overturned current bilateral logic entirely. None of these scenarios is priced as imminent.
That said, the market 31 December 2026 on broad language: any U.S. military offensive “intended to establish control” of Colombian territory. Humanitarian operations, counterterrorism raids, or stabilization missions launched without Bogotá’s consent could, under creative reading, satisfy the criteria—though credible reporting would likely distinguish such actions from invasion proper. The 5% figure is a live read on tail-risk probability, not a forecast. Polymarket will ultimately judge.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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