Would you bet…
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 31% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $112,690 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices a US naval blockade announcement on Iran as an underdog, with 31% bid. 69% holds the bulk of conviction, reflecting the gap between rhetorical escalation and the diplomatic or military step a formal blockade would represent. $113k in total volume suggests modest liquidity for a question with significant geopolitical stakes.
A blockade announcement would require either a sharp deterioration in US-Iran relations or a specific triggering event—whether Iranian nuclear progress, regional military action, or a shift in US administration policy. The resolution criteria are tight: the announcement must be public, official, and explicitly name Iran or Iranian-bound shipping as the target. A sanctions announcement or military positioning alone would not qualify.
Moves on this contract will likely track Iran policy headlines and any US military repositioning in the Persian Gulf. The current price reflects skepticism that such a formal step occurs by year-end, though the threshold for “announcement” is lower than enforcement. Watch for shifts if US-Iran tensions sharpen or if a new administration signals intent.
FAQ
What does a 31% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 31% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 31% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormu
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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