Would you bet…
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $837,052 volume
- Resolves
- 30 Sep 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
The market prices the Iranian regime’s fall by end-September 2026 at 4%, a level that reflects all but ruled out. Volume sits at $837k, and the contract has barely a point either way over the past week. The gap between 4% and 96% tells you how heavily traders are discounting sudden state collapse within 18 months—a scenario that would require either a successful popular uprising that dismantles core institutions like the Supreme Leader’s office and IRGC command structure, or military coup, or foreign intervention.
What moves this price? Domestic unrest is chronic in Iran, but the regime has survived decades of it. The bar for resolution is high: mere protests or even widespread strikes don’t meet it. You’d need the actual overthrow of foundational power structures, not just pressure against them. Regional conflict, economic crisis, or unexpect leadership vacancies could shift probability, but none are baked in yet.
At 4%, traders are saying it’s possible but lean heavily toward institutional continuity. That’s a sober read of recent history—Iran’s system is brittle in some ways, durable in others, and nine-month windows for regime change are rare outside active civil wars.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core struct
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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