Would you bet…
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 13% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $2,638,611 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 2 weeks ago
Bennett at 13% is a long shot—a former prime minister with no current seat in the Knesset, facing long odds in a race that will ultimately turn on coalition arithmetic after October 2026. The price down 4 points over the past week, a signal that traders are not building a case for his return. $2.64M in total volume suggests modest conviction either way.
Bennett led a coalition government from 2021 to 2022, a tenure that ended when his right-wing Yamina party fractured. He currently holds no parliamentary seat and no obvious path to the 61-vote majority needed to form government. The next PM will almost certainly emerge from one of the major blocs—Netanyahu’s Likud, or the center-left opposition—rather than from a one-time kingmaker with a depleted caucus. For this price to move significantly upward, Bennett would need to rebuild Yamina into a credible coalition player, or his rivals would have to deadlock so severely that his arithmetic becomes essential. Neither looks probable from here.
This is priced as a long-shot redemption arc. The market 31 December 2026 on whoever is sworn in after the 2026 election or any early snap poll. Until Bennett signals a return to electoral politics, 87% remains the heavy favorite.
FAQ
What does a 13% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 13% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 13% likely.
How does this market resolve?
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.