Would you bet…
Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $61,569 volume
- Resolves
- 27 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 8 seconds ago
Graham Platner is all but ruled out to be Maine’s Democratic Senate nominee, priced at 4%. The market has in recent trading, with $62k in total volume—thin enough that even modest repositioning could shift the odds. The price reflects a straightforward read: absent voluntary withdrawal by an active candidate before July 13 at 5:00PM ET, the seat stays with its current holder.
What moves this market is contingent on something rare. The resolution criteria hinge on whether the Democratic nominee voluntarily withdraws, triggering a party replacement window before July 27. Without such a withdrawal, Platner holds the line. The thinness of trading suggests limited conviction either way, or simply that traders see a low-probability event and price it accordingly.
At 4%, the market is pricing in either skepticism about Platner’s current standing or genuine uncertainty about whether circumstances might force a change. Monitor primary results and candidate statements for any sign of trouble. Until then, this trades as an edge case—possible, but not where the smart money is sitting.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
If a party nominee in Maine voluntarily withdraws from their election by July 13 at 5:00PM ET, their political party may replace them by July 27 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve according to the individual who is the Maine Democratic Party's apparent nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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