Would you bet…
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 89% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $15,521 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices Delcy Rodríguez as the strongly favored favorite to hold de facto power in Venezuela by year-end 2026, with 89% backing that outcome. The price has has slipped down 3 points, a modest retreat that reflects the inherent uncertainty in predicting Venezuelan state succession. $16k in trading volume suggests modest liquidity for a market with significant geopolitical risk.
Rodríguez, currently vice president, sits closest to Nicolás Maduro in the regime hierarchy and controls key institutional levers. But the resolution hinges on a specific definition: whoever exercises primary executive authority—control of armed forces, institutions, and core decisions—on that date, regardless of title. That opens the door to scenarios where military figures, rival factions, or external pressure produce a different outcome. Venezuela’s political volatility is baked into the 11% floor.
Movement would likely come from signals about military loyalty, Maduro’s health or grip, or international intervention. The price reflects genuine difficulty in predicting two years into a fragile regime. Treat it as a live read, not a forecast.
FAQ
What does a 89% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 89% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 89% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan stat
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.