Would you bet…
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 9% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $110,844 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices a U.S. recognition of Maria Corina Machado as Venezuela’s leader as a long shot, with 9% willing to bet yes and 91% betting no. The contract has held steady barely a point either way, a modest shift that reflects the low baseline odds but real attention. At $111k in volume, traders are pricing in the difficulty of the bet: Machado would need to either seize power in Caracas or secure such overwhelming international pressure that the Trump administration formally breaks with the de facto Maduro government—and does so explicitly, on the record, before year-end 2026.
The math is tight. Recognition requires not just a shift in U.S. policy but a formal statement naming Machado as “leader” or equivalent. The resolution criteria specify that a “qualifying US statement must be dire,” meaning casual remarks won’t move the needle. The bar is high: either a regime collapse in Venezuela, a negotiated transition that elevates Machado, or a dramatic U.S. pivot toward her opposition coalition. None of these are baseline expectations as of now.
The price reflects that reality. Movement would likely come from either credible reporting of instability in Caracas or signals from the Trump administration that it intends to escalate pressure on the Maduro government. For now, 9% is priced as a tail risk—real, but downstream.
FAQ
What does a 9% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 9% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 9% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela statu
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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