Would you bet…
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 6% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $114,270 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Aug 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31, 2026, at 6%, a a long shot that has up 3 points has climbed about 3 points over the week. At $114k in volume, conviction is modest but present. The price reflects what markets usually embed in long-shot scenarios: either a structural shift in the war’s trajectory or the simple fact that 20 months is a long runway for diplomacy, even under duress.
The resolution bar is high but plausible. Ukraine and Russia would need to sign any written agreement—treaty, ceasefire, framework, or mediated text—that either stops fighting or commits both sides to a timetable and principles for ending it. That last clause matters: a roadmap with teeth counts. A statement of intent alone does not.
What would move the needle? A serious third-party mediation effort (backed by real leverage), a major battlefield stalemate that exhausts both sides, or a political rupture in one capital that reshuffles decision-makers. The current price suggests traders see none of these as imminent. For a deal by mid-2026, momentum toward talks would need to appear soon.
FAQ
What does a 6% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 6% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 6% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a c
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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