Would you bet…
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 22% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $2,415,120 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 4 days ago
The market prices a peace deal before 2027 as a long shot, with 22% holding 22% and 78% at 78%. The contract down 2 points over the past week, as has slipped selling pressure has built on the yes side.
The resolution bar is clear: Ukraine and Russia must sign a written instrument—treaty, ceasefire, framework, or mediated agreement—that either stops fighting or commits both sides to a defined peace process by year-end 2026. That leaves roughly two years. Current momentum favors the skeptics. Absent a sudden shift in battlefield dynamics, ceasefire negotiations, or major diplomatic initiative, the contract’s drift suggests traders see sustained conflict as the base case.
What moves this contract? A credible peace announcement, leaked negotiation framework, or NATO-brokered talks would lift 22%. Conversely, escalation or a hardening of either side’s terms deepens 78%’s advantage. $2.42M in trading reflects genuine uncertainty, not consensus. The price is a live read on near-term probability, not a forecast of what happens after 2027.
FAQ
What does a 22% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 22% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 22% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.