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Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 9% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $61,447 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
A peace referendum passing in Ukraine by end-2026 is a long shot, priced at 9%. The contract has barely a point either way this week, a modest shift in what remains a thin market of $61k.
The price reflects a basic reality: Ukraine’s government has not called a peace referendum, and the political path to one remains unclear. President Zelensky would need to initiate such a vote, which hinges on battlefield conditions, domestic pressure, and negotiating dynamics—all fluid. The resolution criteria accept any nationwide vote on peace or a peace deal, which widens the gate slightly, but only a majority of valid votes cast would count as passage. A referendum could theoretically happen in 2025 or early 2026 if military or diplomatic momentum shifted sharply, but there is no public signal of imminent action.
Moves would likely come from major battlefield shifts, leaked diplomatic talks, or explicit statements from Kyiv about holding a referendum. At 9%, the market is pricing in low but nonzero odds—acknowledgment that two years is time enough for circumstances to change, but skepticism that a vote will actually occur. 31 December 2026 at the deadline, so the window is closing.
FAQ
What does a 9% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 9% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 9% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the R
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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