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SCOTUS strikes down Trump’s Birthright Citizenship EO? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 86% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $195,671 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Aug 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market is pricing this as a near-certain loss for Trump’s executive order. 86% sits at strongly favored levels, with $196k in total volume. That leaves 14% for a Supreme Court decision to uphold the order—a slim lane for the administration’s legal case.
The price has has held steady barely a point either way, reflecting either the market’s early confidence in the constitutional weight of the Fourteenth Amendment’s citizenship clause or a lack of conviction that this Court will revisit settled law. The core legal question is whether Congress’s power over immigration can override the automatic citizenship guarantee for children born on U.S. soil, regardless of parental status. Historically, courts have read the amendment’s grant broadly. Movement toward 14% would require either a major shift in oral argument signals or publication of surprising legal scholarship suggesting the justices are seriously entertaining the government’s framing.
This is a market that may not move much unless the Court signals surprise. Watch for post-argument reaction from legal observers as a near-term catalyst.
FAQ
What does a 86% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 86% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 86% likely.
How does this market resolve?
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in t
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On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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