Would you bet…
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 44% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,932,803 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
A ceasefire by year-end 2026 is an underdog, priced at 44%. The contract has down 3 points this week, reflecting the difficulty of engineering a negotiated settlement while fighting continues. The gap between 44% and 56% widens as traders weigh two countervailing forces: the cost of prolonged conflict may eventually push both sides toward talks, but the preconditions for agreement—mutual exhaustion, acceptable territorial terms, security guarantees—remain unmet.
The resolution criteria are narrow: any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement, formally announced or confirmed by credible reporting. A frozen conflict or de facto pause would qualify; a comprehensive peace deal is not required. What moves this market are signals from either government about negotiation readiness, major battlefield shifts that alter leverage, or statements from credible intermediaries like the UN or regional powers.
$1.93M in trading volume reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. The odds embed a roughly one-in-three chance that two years is enough time to reach even a minimal ceasefire—plausible if war fatigue peaks, but contingent on political will that hasn’t materialized. Watch for shifts in military momentum and diplomatic rhetoric as the market’s primary dial.
FAQ
What does a 44% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 44% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 44% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, wh
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.