Would you bet…
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 48% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,774,128 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market is a coin flip on whether Netanyahu leaves office by year-end 2026. 48% and 52% are nearly even, with 48% priced at 48% and 52% at 52%—a statistical toss-up. Volume sits at $1.77M, solid for a political contract. The price has slipped down 6 points, suggesting modest erosion in exit odds over the past week.
What moves this contract is the intersection of three fault lines: Netanyahu’s legal exposure (the ongoing trial for corruption and fraud), coalition stability (his government depends on ultranationalist partners with narrow interests), and domestic pressure (sustained protest and economic friction). Any major court ruling, cabinet defection, or early election call would ripple through the book. Conversely, a stability signal—judicial delays, coalition consolidation—would likely push the price the other way.
The near-parity reflects genuine uncertainty. Netanyahu has survived previous ousters and legal jeopardy before. But fourteen months is a short window, and Israeli politics has a habit of moving fast. The current price is an honest read of the odds, not a forecast.
FAQ
What does a 48% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 48% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 48% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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