Would you bet…
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $103,898 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 2 weeks ago
Lai Ching-te remaining in office through end-2026 is all but ruled out. The market prices his removal or resignation at 5%, with 95% implied for continuity. The contract has held steady barely a point either way, a modest shift that reflects baseline political stability in Taiwan rather than any fresh crisis.
The resolution criteria are broad: any announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline triggers a “Yes” immediately, even if the actual departure comes later. This means the market is sensitive not just to sudden illness or death, but to political pressure severe enough to force a public exit. Lai took office in May 2024 with solid democratic legitimacy, and no current reporting suggests imminent constitutional crisis or health emergency. Taiwan’s institutions, while tested, have weathered succession questions before.
Movement would require either a major health event, a stunning political reversal, or an unprecedented constitutional challenge. $104k in volume suggests modest liquidity and conviction either way. At 5%, traders are pricing this as unlikely but not impossible—a reasonable hedge rather than a strong prediction of upheaval.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immedi
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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