Would you bet…
Iran Nuke before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 6% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,075,229 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices Iran’s nuclear capability by end-2026 at 6%, a a long shot that has held steady barely a point either way. The pricing reflects the hard technical reality: Iran’s nuclear program has advanced steadily, but crossing from enrichment to a weaponized device remains a discrete, observable step. 94% bets that either negotiations, technical obstacles, or detection and intervention prevent that crossing in the next two years.
The resolution hinges on official confirmation from credible sources—nuclear agencies, Iran’s government, or established news outlets. This is tighter than suspicion or capability; it requires public acknowledgment of an actual weapon. That standard matters. Iran could theoretically possess undeclared weapons and still resolve this to “No” if no credible source confirms it.
Volume sits at $1.08M, modest for a geopolitical binary. Movement would come from credible reporting on enrichment levels, IAEA inspections, diplomatic breakthroughs, or Israeli action. The price is a live read on the market’s collective estimate of both technical progress and the probability of disclosure by year-end 2026—not a forecast of Iran’s long-term capability.
FAQ
What does a 6% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 6% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 6% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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