Would you bet…
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $796,420 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market is pricing Iran’s agreement to end uranium enrichment by July 31 as all but ruled out—4% currently, with 96% betting against it. The token has has slipped down 5 points, a sharp move that reflects the underlying skepticism about a deal materializing in the next eighteen months. $796k in trading shows modest engagement on the question.
The resolution criteria are strict: Iran must publicly pledge to end all enrichment, either unilaterally or as part of a negotiated agreement with the U.S., Israel, or others. The pledge can be announced before July 31 regardless of implementation date. That’s a high bar. Current U.S.-Iran relations, uranium stockpiles at highly enriched levels, and the absence of active diplomatic momentum all weigh against it. A surprise thaw in talks or a major shift in regional politics would be required to move this sharply upward.
At 4%, the market is saying: unlikely, but not impossible. A new administration’s negotiating posture, an unexpected diplomatic opening, or a credible interim confidence-building measure could shift the dial. Watch for any public statement of intent from Tehran, not just completed treaties.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcemen
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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