Would you bet…
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 27% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,264,142 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 4 days ago
27% is trading as an underdog, having down 2 points this week. The market is pricing in a low probability that Iran publicly commits to halting all uranium enrichment by year-end 2026. The criteria are permissive—any official pledge counts, whether unilateral or negotiated—but the political gap between Iran’s current posture and such a reversal remains wide. $1.26M in trading suggests modest conviction either way.
What moves this market: a sudden diplomatic breakthrough with the U.S. or Israel, or a shift in Iran’s negotiating position under domestic or international pressure. The resolution date gives roughly a year for such a turn. Short of a formal agreement announcement, the probability likely stays compressed. Traders are essentially betting on a low-probability but non-negligible diplomatic shock.
At 27%, the market is calibrated to meaningful skepticism. That reflects reality. But the long runway and the resolution criteria’s flexibility—accepting pledges made anytime before the deadline—keep it from pricing as impossible.
FAQ
What does a 27% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 27% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 27% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announce
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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