Would you bet…
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $8.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 34% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,612 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
34% of traders are betting the Ornn B200 Index will reach $8.00 or higher by year-end 2026, making this an underdog. That confidence rests on the index needing to climb from wherever it trades today to that $8.00 level within roughly two years—a testable claim that hinges on the daily closes reported at Polymarket.
$2k in trading volume suggests this remains a thin market with room for price discovery. in recent trading has held, which tells us how recent momentum has behaved. The resolution criteria are straightforward: any single day’s close at $8.00 or above triggers a “Yes” payout. No averaging, no sustained level required—just one touch.
What moves the needle here is the index’s actual trajectory. Traders pricing 34% are essentially forecasting either steady appreciation or a spike that cracks that threshold within the window. Without knowing the index’s current level or volatility, the market is saying such a move is more likely than not—but markets are live reads, not verdicts, and 34% can shift as new data flows.
FAQ
What does a 34% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 34% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 34% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn B200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.