Would you bet…
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $39B? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 89% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $3,881 volume
- Resolves
- 17 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 2 months ago
89% is pricing in a strongly favored outcome: the market is betting heavily that TSM will post Q2 revenue above $39 billion. The token has climbed up 23 points, a move of up 23 points this week alone, suggesting fresh conviction behind the bullish case.
The threshold matters. TSM’s recent quarters have trended toward or above $40 billion; the bar at $39 billion is achievable but not a layup. What moves this further: any pre-earnings guidance from the company, sector demand signals for semiconductors, or revisions to AI-driven capex plans that would affect near-term revenues. Downside risks include weaker-than-expected smartphone and PC demand, or macroeconomic headwinds that delay customer orders.
$4k is thin, which means the 89% price reflects conviction more than liquidity. Traders betting against this would need to see a meaningful miss from TSM or a sharp macro deterioration to shift the dial. The current price is a live read on near-term semiconductor demand—not a certainty.
FAQ
What does a 89% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 89% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 89% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue in USD for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.