Would you bet…
Will Oura’s market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 12% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $11,209 volume
- Resolves
- 1 Jan 2027
- Updated
- 1 month ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? at 12% — a long shot the market largely dismisses. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in…
The market is scheduled to settle on 1 Jan 2027. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 12% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 12% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 12% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstandin
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.