Would you bet…
Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 total capital expenditures be above $38B? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 84% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $3,970 volume
- Resolves
- 29 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
Microsoft’s capex for Q4 is strongly favored, with 84% priced in for a Yes resolution. The market is betting heavily that the company will exceed $38 billion in total capital expenditures for the quarter—a threshold that reflects Microsoft’s accelerating infrastructure spending, particularly on AI-related data centers and computing capacity. Trading volume sits at $4k, in recent trading.
To land above $38B, Microsoft would need to sustain the elevated spending pace it has maintained through 2024 as it competes for AI leadership and builds out cloud infrastructure. The company disclosed roughly $13 billion in capex for Q1 fiscal 2025 alone, suggesting an annualized run rate well above the $38B quarterly mark is plausible. The resolution hinges entirely on what Microsoft reports in its official earnings materials for fiscal Q4 2025, with no room for subsequent revisions.
The price reflects real confidence in Microsoft’s continued heavy investment cycle. Traders would need concrete evidence of a slowdown—or a change in how the company accounts for or structures capex—to materially shift conviction. Watch Microsoft’s quarterly guidance and commentary on capex trajectory for any signals of moderation.
FAQ
What does a 84% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 84% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 84% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft's total capital expenditures for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, are above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported i
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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