Would you bet…
Will Japan’s core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 22% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $3,339 volume
- Resolves
- 22 Jan 2027
- Updated
- 1 month ago
The market is pricing Japan’s core inflation at a long shot, with 22% betting that 2026 inflation stays at or below 1.9%. That’s a tight target—Japan’s core CPI has oscillated around the 2% mark for the past year, making this essentially a coin-flip bet that the Bank of Japan holds rates steady or that demand softens enough to cool prices. 78% has has slipped down 25 points, suggesting traders are growing more confident inflation will overshoot that threshold.
What moves this market is the inflation data itself. The SBJ will settle it on 22 January 2027 using the official Consumer Price Index Annual Report. Between now and then, watch monthly CPI prints for trend direction—particularly energy costs and wage growth, which drive Japan’s sticky services inflation. A string of prints above 2% would likely push 78% higher.
At $3k, this is thin liquidity, so moves can feel exaggerated. The price reflects genuine uncertainty: Japan’s inflation story remains in flux, neither clearly cooling nor sustainably hot. Current odds say the house is betting on an overshoot, but the margin is narrow.
FAQ
What does a 22% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 22% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 22% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolutio
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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