Would you bet…
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $52B? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 69% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,151 volume
- Resolves
- 30 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
69% is the favorite, pricing in a roughly two-to-one likelihood that Apple’s Q3 iPhone revenue will exceed $52 billion. in recent trading has held, suggesting modest conviction either way. At $1k in volume, the market is thin, which usually means prices can swing on news flow rather than deep order books.
The $52 billion threshold sits near Apple’s recent iPhone performance—Q2 FY2024 iPhone revenue came in at $51.98 billion, so this bar is essentially asking whether the company holds or edges past that level in the next quarterly report. That’s a reasonably tight target. Much depends on demand trends in the current quarter, product mix, and any refresh cycle dynamics, all of which won’t be fully visible until 30 July 2026, when Apple files official earnings materials.
Moves here would likely come from broader iPhone demand signals—supply chain chatter, carrier data, or early guidance commentary—rather than from the market repricing risk in a vacuum. The current odds reflect genuine uncertainty in a binary that could plausibly go either way. Polymarket will settle on Apple’s audited filing; no guidance or analyst consensus will count.
FAQ
What does a 69% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 69% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 69% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple's iPhone revenue for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's of
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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