Would you bet…
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 81% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $229,301 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2027
- Updated
- 1 month ago
The market has climbed up 15 points, with Anthropic priced at 81%—a strongly favored outcome. At $229k in volume, traders are decisively betting that Anthropic reaches public markets before OpenAI does, with nearly nine times as much capital behind a yes outcome as a no one.
The gap reflects a basic fact: Anthropic has publicly committed to a path toward IPO, while OpenAI has stated no such intention. OpenAI’s structure—a capped-profit subsidiary under a nonprofit parent—adds legal complexity that Anthropic lacks. Anthropic’s valuation (last reported at $15 billion in 2023) and fundraising cadence suggest earlier readiness. But the resolution window runs through December 2027. A material shift would require either company to announce concrete IPO plans, or OpenAI to reverse course and commit to going public first.
That price is a live read of current information, not a forecast. Markets can reprice sharply on strategic announcements.
FAQ
What does a 81% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 81% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 81% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an In
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.