Would you bet…
Will AbbVie Q2 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $18B? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,526 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
The market prices this outcome as all but ruled out, with 4% holding just 4% of the probability. Volume sits at $2k, and in recent trading shows has held.
Skyrizi is AbbVie’s psoriasis and Crohn’s disease therapy, a key growth driver. For context: the $18B threshold would represent roughly 40% of AbbVie’s total quarterly revenue—an extraordinary share for a single drug. To reach that mark, Skyrizi would need to be generating north of $4.5B per quarter globally, a figure that would place it among the highest-grossing drugs ever launched, and one that far outpaces current industry modeling for the franchise at this stage.
The only plausible path: a dramatically accelerated uptake across geographies combined with substantial price realization, neither of which appears reflected in sell-side consensus or recent quarterly trends. A material miss versus market expectations, a major new indication approval, or a significant acquisition by AbbVie might warrant recalibration—but none are currently priced in. The current odds suggest the bar is set well beyond what the data supports.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if AbbVie's Global Skyrizi net revenues for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, are above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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