Would you bet…
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 11% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $161,834 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
The market prices HYPE flipping SOL as a long shot, with 11% backing an upset by year-end 2026. That bet has slipped down 3 points, a pullback that reflects the gap between the two assets: Solana trades with a market cap in the high tens of billions, while HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid derivatives exchange, sits orders of magnitude smaller. For HYPE to overtake SOL would require either explosive growth in HYPE’s valuation or a sharp collapse in Solana’s—or both.
The resolution hinges on a single data point from CoinGecko: market capitalization at any moment through December 31, 2026. That two-year window matters. Crypto narratives shift fast, and exchange tokens have proven volatile. But the numerical hurdle is steep. HYPE would need to gain ground faster than one of the largest crypto networks, which has institutional adoption, a developer ecosystem, and years of operational history.
$162k in trading reflects modest conviction either way. 11% pricing suggests the market assigns this outcome meaningful but low probability—neither dismissing it outright nor treating it as plausible. At this price, you’re betting on disruption or a major revaluation of exchange tokens relative to blockchain assets.
FAQ
What does a 11% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 11% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 11% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the market capitalization of HYPE (HYPE) surpasses that of Solana (SOL) according to CoinGecko at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's dat
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What crypto markets can I trade?
Bitcoin and Ether price levels, spot-ETF approvals, exchange IPOs, and corporate-treasury moves are the most active.
Do I need crypto to trade these?
Not always. Some platforms fund in dollars; Polymarket settles in USDC. Check each platform’s funding options first.
Where’s the deepest crypto liquidity?
Polymarket and Kalshi — compare them in our Polymarket and Kalshi reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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