Would you bet…
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 39% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,570,200 volume
- Resolves
- 1 Jan 2027
- Updated
- 16 seconds ago
The Clarity Act is an underdog, trading at 39% as traders bet against passage by year-end 2026. The market has slipped down 9 points, a pullback that reflects the legislative headwinds facing H.R.3633. With $1.57M in volume, there’s real money behind this view.
The math is straightforward: the bill needs to clear both chambers and land on the President’s desk within the next two years. No version has yet passed either chamber. A Republican-controlled Congress and crypto industry backing are tailwinds, but crypto regulation remains contested terrain on the Hill, and competing bills exist. Timing matters—the longer this stretches into 2026, the narrower the window.
Movement hinges on concrete legislative progress: a committee vote, floor passage in the House, Senate advancement. Shifts in congressional composition or explicit presidential support could repruce the odds quickly. For now 39% prices in skepticism about the odds and speed required. 1 January 2027 on official congressional records.
FAQ
What does a 39% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 39% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 39% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislatio
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What crypto markets can I trade?
Bitcoin and Ether price levels, spot-ETF approvals, exchange IPOs, and corporate-treasury moves are the most active.
Do I need crypto to trade these?
Not always. Some platforms fund in dollars; Polymarket settles in USDC. Check each platform’s funding options first.
Where’s the deepest crypto liquidity?
Polymarket and Kalshi — compare them in our Polymarket and Kalshi reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.