Would you bet…
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 12% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $211,373 volume
- Resolves
- 1 Jan 2027
- Updated
- 1 week ago
Extended’s token needs to hit an $800M fully diluted valuation within 24 hours of launch for 12% to cash. Right now the market prices that at 12%, a a long shot that has up 2 points has climbed over the past week. With $211k in volume, there’s modest liquidity but not much conviction either way.
The math is straightforward: total token supply times price must exceed $800M by 4:00 PM ET on day two. That’s a high bar for a day-one close. Most tokens that hit eight-figure FDVs do so on momentum and hype rather than utility, which means launch conditions matter enormously—exchange listings, influencer signal, and initial buy pressure. Extended would need either exceptional scarcity (a very tight token supply) or explosive price action to clear this threshold so quickly.
What moves this: evidence of unusual launch demand, insider signals about distribution, or a shift in how traders assess the team’s ability to generate day-one volume. For now 88% remains the a long shot, but markets price in tail scenarios. Watch for pre-launch details on supply and exchange partners.
FAQ
What does a 12% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 12% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 12% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV wi
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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