How Prediction Markets Resolve Winning Contracts
Prediction markets resolve according to the rules written for each contract. A well-built market spells out the question, the deadline, the settlement source, and what happens in unusual scenarios — and those rules, not the headline, decide who gets paid.
What settlement means
Kalshi‘s documentation describes settlement as the moment a market’s outcome is determined: Yes holders receive $1 per contract if Yes wins, No holders receive $1 if No wins, and the losing side gets $0. Timing varies with the market type, how quickly official data is available, and any review the platform requires.
The source decides
A CPI inflation contract settles on the official government release. A sports contract settles on official league statistics. A weather contract settles on a named weather authority. The “obvious” result on TV doesn’t pay you — the named source does, once it publishes.
That is why two markets asking what sounds like the same question can resolve differently: they may use different sources, cut-off times, or rounding rules.
Read the source before you trade
Always check the settlement source and timing before buying. A market can look like a lock and still surprise you if the official data is revised, delayed, or measured differently than you assumed. Understanding resolution is the other half of reading Yes/No contracts, and avoiding ambiguous ones is a core beginner mistake to dodge.