Would you bet…
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 71% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $6,889 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 2 months ago
71% is the favorite, having has climbed up 34 points. The market is pricing in roughly a one-in-three-or-four chance that measles cases will exceed 3,500 in the U.S. during 2026—a significant but not overwhelming risk. To put that in context, the U.S. recorded 1,153 confirmed cases in 2024 and 531 in 2023, suggesting a major outbreak would be required to reach the threshold.
What would it take? A sharp drop in vaccination coverage, introduction of a new variant with high transmissibility, or significant population movement from areas of active circulation. The baseline assumption embedded in the NO price is that vaccination rates hold roughly steady and no crisis event materializes. Recent measles activity has been concentrated in specific communities with lower immunization uptake; reaching 3,500 nationwide would imply either much broader penetration of such gaps or a shift in epidemiological conditions.
$7k is modest, leaving room for informed traders to move the line. Watch vaccination coverage data and any reported outbreaks in early 2026 for signals. The price reflects genuine uncertainty, not a forecast.
FAQ
What does a 71% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 71% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 71% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwi
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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