Would you bet…
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 91% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $3,601 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices this outcome as strongly favored, with 91% on yes and 9% on no. in recent trading has held, suggesting conviction around the baseline forecast.
The threshold is 2,200 confirmed measles cases by mid-year 2026. For context: the U.S. recorded 271 cases in 2024 and 507 in 2023, according to CDC data. Reaching 2,200 would require a roughly five-fold surge from recent norms—a scenario that would demand either a major outbreak or sustained transmission across multiple regions. Vaccination coverage remains the primary lever. The U.S. two-dose MMR completion rate sits near 95% nationally, though pockets of lower uptake create vulnerability in specific communities.
What moves the needle: a documented outbreak in an under-vaccinated cluster, or erosion in immunization rates heading into 2026. in recent trading is minimal at $4k, which limits price discovery. The market 31 July 2026 on Polymarket, a clearly defined, accessible metric. The pricing reflects epidemiological baseline—not panic, not complacency.
FAQ
What does a 91% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 91% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 91% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Th
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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